NFL Pricing
A course on how to find reliable probabilities in NFL matches.
2023/24 Season Update Introduction
FREE PREVIEWBringing results up to date
Market calibration
Rating regression and close season adjustments
Total points via yardage efficiency
Super Bowl Model Recap
2023/24 Update Materials
Introduction
What does the data look like
538.com ELO model part 1
The Quarterback adjustment
538.com ELO model Part 2
Updating post match ELO ratings
Predicting outcomes using our automated ELO model
Post match outcomes using our automated ELO model
Market calibrated ratings part 1
Market calibrated ratings part 2
Total Points
Pricing Super Bowl winner and other markets
Quarterback passing yards prop
Prop bets - to score in every quarter