NFL Pricing
A course on how to find reliable probabilities in NFL matches.
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1
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2023/24 Season Update Introduction
FREE PREVIEW
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Bringing results up to date
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Market calibration
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Rating regression and close season adjustments
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Total points via yardage efficiency
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Super Bowl Model Recap
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2023/24 Update Materials
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2
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Introduction
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What does the data look like
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3
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538.com ELO model part 1
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The Quarterback adjustment
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538.com ELO model Part 2
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Updating post match ELO ratings
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4
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Predicting outcomes using our automated ELO model
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Post match outcomes using our automated ELO model
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5
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Market calibrated ratings part 1
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Market calibrated ratings part 2
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Total Points
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6
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Pricing Super Bowl winner and other markets
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Quarterback passing yards prop
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Prop bets - to score in every quarter
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