Course curriculum

  • 1
    Introduction to Probability
  • 2
    Basic Principles
  • 3
    Principles and Axioms of Probability
    • Two important axioms of probability
    • Propositions of probability - the complement rule
    • Principles and Axioms Exercise 1
    • Propositions of probability - the addition rule
    • Principles and Axioms Exercise 2
    • Propositions of probability - the multiplication rule
    • Building a calculated pre-match tool with momentum
    • Conditional probability
    • A comment about conditional probability
    • Conditional Probability pricing exercise
  • 4
    Counting Techniques
    • Counting - Permutations
    • Counting - Combinations
    • Probability grids exercise
    • Custom Functions in VBA (Factorials, Combinations, Permutations)
  • 5
    Useful Probability Distributions
    • What is a Probability Distribution?
    • The Binomial Distribution Part 1
    • The Binomial Distribution Part 2
    • The Binomial Distribution Part 3
    • Custom Functions in VBA - Binomial Distribution
    • The Negative Binomial Distribution
    • The Multinomial distribution
    • Real world application of combinations with different probabilities
    • The Poisson distribution Part 1
    • The Poisson Distribution Part 2 and Exercise
    • Building a Poisson Grid in VBA
    • The Normal Distribution Part 1 - Derivation
    • The Normal Distribution Part 2 - Standard Deviation
    • The Normal Distribution Part 3 - Exercise
    • The Exponential Distribution Part 1 - Derivation
    • The Exponential Distribution Part 2 - Exercise
    • The Exponential Distribution Part 3 - an alternative
  • 6
    Ratings systems
    • Why ratings systems are so useful
    • The Bradley Terry Model - principle
    • Bradley Terry Model - practical use coded version
    • ELO Ratings - principle
    • ELO model - practical use coded version
    • An introduction to rating football teams
  • 7
    Simulation
    • Simulation or calculation?
    • Team to win and player to score - calculation exercise
    • Simulation Part 1
    • Simulation Part 2
    • Simulation Part 3
    • Team to win and player to score - simulation exercise 1
    • Team to win and player to score - simulation exercise 2
  • 8
    Building a sports model
    • Building a coded algorithmic model part 1
    • Building a coded algorithmic model part 2
    • Building a coded algorithmic model part 3
    • Building a coded algorithmic model part 4
  • 9
    Useful Excel Formulas and Functions
    • Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 1
    • Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 2
    • Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 3
    • Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 4
    • Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 5