Course curriculum

1
Welcome
 The Principles of Odds Compiling  Welcome FREE PREVIEW
 Online course introduction FREE PREVIEW
 Excel materials for the course

2
Basic Principles
 2.01 What is probability  Introduction to fixed odds betting FREE PREVIEW
 2.02 Law of Large Numbers and Expected value
 2.03 Odds formats and probabilities
 2.04 Types of fixed odds prices
 2.05 Bookmaking and overround
 2.05a Overround application
 2.06 Gamblers fallacy
 2.07 Overbroke books and arbitrage
 2.08 Cashout

3
Principles and Axioms of Probability
 2.09 Two important axioms of probability
 2.10 Propositions of probability 1 The complement rule
 2.11 Removal of overround to find fair probabilities
 2.12 Propositions of probability 2 The addition rule
 2.13 Propositions of probability 3 The multiplication rule
 2.14 Building a prematch tool with momentum
 2.15 Conditional Probability
 2.16 Pricing exercise 1

4
Counting Techniques
 2.17 Counting part 1
 2.18 Counting part 2
 2.19 Pricing exercise 2 probability grids

5
Useful Probability Distributions
 2.20 What is a probability distribution
 2.21 The Binomial Distribution part 1
 2.22 The Binomial Distribution part 2
 2.23 The Binomial Distribution part 3
 2.24 Negative Binomial Distribution
 2.25 Multinomial distribution
 2.26 Poisson distribution part 1
 2.27 Poisson distribution part 2
 2.28 Normal Distribution part 1
 2.29 Normal Distribution part 2
 2.30 Normal Distribution Part 3
 2.31 Exponential Distribution Derivation and Characteristics
 2.32a Exponential Distribution Part 2
 2.32b Exponential Distribution Part 3 alternative

6
Ratings Systems
 2.33 Bradley Terry model
 2.34 Elo ratings
 2.35 Introduction to rating football teams

7
Simulation
 2.36 Simulation part 1
 2.37 Simulation part 2
 2.38 Simulation part 3

8
Useful Excel Formulas and Functions
 2.39 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 1
 2.40 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 2
 2.41 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 3
 2.42 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 4
 2.43 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 5