Course curriculum
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1
Welcome
- The Principles of Odds Compiling - Welcome FREE PREVIEW
- Online course introduction FREE PREVIEW
- Excel materials for the course
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2
Basic Principles
- 2.01 What is probability - Introduction to fixed odds betting FREE PREVIEW
- 2.02 Law of Large Numbers and Expected value
- 2.03 Odds formats and probabilities
- 2.04 Types of fixed odds prices
- 2.05 Bookmaking and overround
- 2.05a Overround application
- 2.06 Gamblers fallacy
- 2.07 Overbroke books and arbitrage
- 2.08 Cashout
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3
Principles and Axioms of Probability
- 2.09 Two important axioms of probability
- 2.10 Propositions of probability 1 The complement rule
- 2.11 Removal of overround to find fair probabilities
- 2.12 Propositions of probability 2 The addition rule
- 2.13 Propositions of probability 3 The multiplication rule
- 2.14 Building a pre-match tool with momentum
- 2.15 Conditional Probability
- 2.16 Pricing exercise 1
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4
Counting Techniques
- 2.17 Counting part 1
- 2.18 Counting part 2
- 2.19 Pricing exercise 2 probability grids
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5
Useful Probability Distributions
- 2.20 What is a probability distribution
- 2.21 The Binomial Distribution part 1
- 2.22 The Binomial Distribution part 2
- 2.23 The Binomial Distribution part 3
- 2.24 Negative Binomial Distribution
- 2.25 Multinomial distribution
- 2.26 Poisson distribution part 1
- 2.27 Poisson distribution part 2
- 2.28 Normal Distribution part 1
- 2.29 Normal Distribution part 2
- 2.30 Normal Distribution Part 3
- 2.31 Exponential Distribution Derivation and Characteristics
- 2.32a Exponential Distribution Part 2
- 2.32b Exponential Distribution Part 3 alternative
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6
Ratings Systems
- 2.33 Bradley Terry model
- 2.34 Elo ratings
- 2.35 Introduction to rating football teams
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7
Simulation
- 2.36 Simulation part 1
- 2.37 Simulation part 2
- 2.38 Simulation part 3
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8
Useful Excel Formulas and Functions
- 2.39 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 1
- 2.40 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 2
- 2.41 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 3
- 2.42 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 4
- 2.43 Excel Commands Functions and Formulas Part 5